Soaring Ammonia Prices Amid Record U.S. Corn Acreage and Tight Supply
Ammonia prices are experiencing significant increases as the 2025 growing season approaches. Several key factors are contributing to this upward trend, including expanded U.S. corn acreage, limited producer inventories, and seasonal tightening ahead of fall application.
🌽 Record Corn Acreage Drives Fertilizer Demand
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that U.S. farmers will plant approximately 95 million acres of corn in 2025, marking a substantial increase from previous years. This expansion is expected to drive up fertilizer demand, particularly for nitrogen-based products like ammonia. In Arkansas alone, corn acreage is projected to rise by 31% compared to the previous year .
📈 Ammonia Prices Surge
As of August 2025, ammonia prices are approximately $135 per ton higher than at the same time last year and $235 per ton above summer 2024 levels. This increase is attributed to strong demand driven by expanded corn acreage and tight producer inventories. Analysts from ICIS forecast that ammonia pricing will remain firm through the fourth quarter of 2025, with momentum potentially continuing into early 2026 .
💰 Nutrient Affordability Remains Weak
Despite the increased demand for ammonia, nutrient affordability remains a concern for farmers. According to Argus Media, the nutrient affordability index fell to 0.94 points in early January 2025, indicating that fertilizer costs are becoming less affordable for farmers . This trend continued into June, with the index dropping to 0.75, the lowest since September 2022 .Argus MediaArgus Media
🔮 Outlook for Fall Application
Unless there is a significant shift in planting decisions or unexpected weather disruptions, near-term price relief for ammonia is unlikely. The combination of increased corn acreage and tight supply suggests that ammonia prices will remain elevated throughout the fall application season.
🤝 Supporting Your Business
We understand that rising fertilizer costs can pose challenges for your operations. We are committed to providing transparency and reliability as you navigate these market conditions. Please reach out to discuss planning options or if you have any questions about managing fertilizer inputs during this period.
Recent Developments in Ammonia Market
CF Industries reports rise in fourth-quarter profit on higher ammonia sales
US offers $1.56 bln conditional loan for Indiana ammonia facility
